Analysis of the evolution of energy consumption structure and its impact on carbon emissions in Beijing

doi:10.7523/j.ucas.2026.032

Abstract

Abstract: Optimizing Beijing’s energy structure is crucial for its post-coal carbon reduction strategy. This paper analyzes Beijing’_s energy evolution (2001-2021) using the LMDI method and translog production functions to assess structural adjustment and substitution effects. Key findings: (1) Beijing’s energy has shifted from local fossil fuels to imported and low-carbon electricity, with industry and transport remaining the primary emission sources. (2) At the macro level, structural adjustments peaked in emission reduction during 2011-2015 but now show diminishing marginal returns as the focus shifts to oil/gas-to-electricity substitution. (3) At the micro level, substituting electricity for oil and natural gas can reduce direct fossil-fuel emissions, but the total emission reduction effect is constrained by indirect emissions from imported electricity. Electricity substitution for oil has a stronger direct emission reduction effect, with the most significant effect in the transport sector and certain potential in the construction sector. Electricity substitution for natural gas has a weaker overall emission reduction effect, although the industrial sector has begun to show potential for total emission reduction in the later period.

Key words: energy consumption structure, carbon emissions, LMDI, energy substitution effect, Beijing

CLC Number:

TE01

DAI Yiyang, HAN Mengyao, SONG Zhouying. Analysis of the evolution of energy consumption structure and its impact on carbon emissions in Beijing[J]. Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, DOI: 10.7523/j.ucas.2026.032.

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